Marketgeometry

Monday, June 4, 2007

You got to hit them when they are hot - 6/4/2007





This is how stupid I can be. The system I have figured out has had 15 profitable and two break even months in the last 17. During this year, it has only had four down weeks and 3 really bad days. In the months of April and May which were average months, there were 122 trades possible. 18 were great trades. 54 were ok trades (small gains). 25 were break evens (plus or minus under $50). 23 for small losses and 2 for big losses. For a conservative profit of $13,500 for the two months. I should be trading the living day lights out of this, but I am not. I am trying to out think it. Only picking the winners and not the losers. If you have an edge use it dummy.
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The trading is not easy and I am trying to simplify it. Above are 4 examples of items I should have been short. The way the action was on these I should have shorted PDLI and NSC with a market order on the open. I knew ONXX and NVT were going to be trickier so you scale into them as they go up. For NVT I should have had orders to sell at 45.50 (1/3), 45.70 (1/3) and 45.90. The gap on the daily started at 46.25 and wow the opening surge stopped at 46.25 with a big order to sell after a nice run in the stock. The plan for ONXX would have been the premarket high of 34 so the orders should have been 33.50 (1/3), 33.75 (1/3) and 34.00 (1/3). This would have gotten me into each of the stocks based on thier action in premakret and their daily charts. I just do not have the balls to do this yet but if I am going to be successful I need to. The only major problem with this system is that as you see, you will have 2 to 5 stocks fire off nearly at the same time.
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The results - I wanted to be short 1000 to 1500 shares of NVT. With an average cost of 45.75 one could have picked up 75 cents or more before the market gave you a reason to sell. With PDLI, a 1000 shares and to cover 60 cents lower. With NSC it would be a scratch trade with a 1000 shares. ONXX would give you an average cost of 32.75. I would have wanted the trade to be also 1000 shares. I might have cut the trade short for little but if I had the other 3 trades on and 2 of them working well quickly, I might of had the guts to hold on longer. This is the type of trading I want to do. This is the type of trading I know I can do. I just need to stop being a chicken and think like a Turtle - the system works dammit just trade it. So I think I should have an easy day and had made about $2500 with out even thinking about my steel scales. Instead I only traded NVT after the peak and only got a position of 200 on because the damn thing moved too fast.
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I love how MT tells me over and over - it is just a game.
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The numbers - Gross +44, net +37, shares traded 1400 - isn't that sad after you see the trades from above.

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