Monday, April 30, 2007

Boring - a second thought - 4/30/2007

Maybe I am being hard on myself but after thinking about it, today could have been a good day if I was disciplined enough. If I had traded the trades I saw, I could have made good money today. If I had hit IOTN on the 8 am pop with 2000 shares instead of 500. I would have made $210. Hit it again on the open and the result from what I was going after would be +$300. on the open, add in the PENN short - 1000 shares +$400 and the two steels setups - AKS +$200 and NUE +450 - it could have been a nice day of over a +$1500 day. I know this sounds like Monday morning quarterbacking, but I had the orders ready to go in both IOTN trades, PENN and AKS. So it is not a stretch in my mind - I should have done a lot better on a boring day.

Boring - 4/30/2007

Today was a boring day of seeing very little to trade and missing most of it.
The mouth had recommended two stocks - IOTN and PENN. There was no shares to short on IOTN. When this happens, I look to go long the stock instead. Looking for the 8 am pop, I made a big $50 on a IOTN long. PENN was not trading enough to play with. I looked for some Biotech news and saw none and saw none of the stocks having any volume at all with except AVNR. Went to news on stocks - nothing there - maybe ACP but that had a big spread. Any action in the stocks that might pop because of other Blogs - none there. Ok - let's wait until the open to see if PENN is a short and IOTN is a long. Open - trying to get a handle on IOTN. Should go long a couple of 1000 shares but the spread is acting weird and I can't find my place. While watching IOTN, I miss out on an easy short of PENN. ON to the next - scalping the steel stocks. There is very few entries there and I miss the two best while taking a health break (memo to self - buy a port-a-potty). Work calls and trading day is done for me. Boring.
The numbers - gross +55, net +50 and share traded (a big) 1000

Saturday, April 28, 2007

Trying something new - 4/27/2007

Yesterday was a day I decided to try something new. I am trying to find methods of trading that fit my personality and mindset. I feel this is very important for ones success. I have seen too many people try to get stock picks and/or methods from someone else only to see it does not work for them. You must understand what you are doing, what you are looking for and what your plan is. Relying on someone may seem like a short cut but I can't really think of anyone who has made it work. So the bottom line is, find you own style and make a plan around it. It is your own baby watch it grow.
I will continue to go after the Big Mouth trades along with looking for BioTech plays in the premarket, add in a picks from some trusted websites that I understand (anti-big mouth picks), and scan for news events (mainly earnings).
The two new ideas I am playing around with are - find one or two stocks and learn how they trade each day and the other - playing around with a couple of indicators to swing trade the currencies with.
Fridays trading I started trying to play with a couple stocks looking for that one or two to trade all the time. I should have stayed with shorting the big mouth ideas on the opening but I passed on them Friday. I played around with WFR in the premarket and made a couple of dollars. Again I am pissed that my size should have been bigger.
The numbers - gross +131, net +118 and shares traded 2600

Thursday, April 26, 2007

Danger Will Robinson Danger - 4/26/2007

As a very young (but old) daytrader, I have used every excuse not to being properly ready for the trading day - over sleeping, messy desk, just don't feel right, the office call, the wife needed something and so forth. In other words, not being totally disciplined. So under the "dog ate my homework" category - I had a new today. Soon after finishing a trade right after the opening, one of my computers light up like a Christmas tree with warning signs from my Anti-virus software stating my PC was infected. I pulled the plug on my Internet connection and spent the next two hours cleaning my computer and then stating "screw it" - I am done for the day.
I did play around with AAPL in the premarket and lost a few dollars. I can never get AAPL right so I just should stay away. In fact, the AAPL trade was just a pure dumb one to begin with. No real plan. Nothing else setup until the opening. Had a nice short in CAKE but as I have done so many times before I leave a lot of money on the table. It is frustrating. I only trade about a third of the setups or planned trades I see/have and only hold about a quarter of them long enough. If I do not chance those two facts, I will never be successful in this business.
The numbers - gross +90 net +73 and shares traded 1400.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Doing Battle With The Mouth - 4/25/2007

I decided today to do battle with the mouth. He really is a nice guy and means well but his viewers do not trade his recommendations like they should. There were 3 last night - KOP TRN and DRI - his main recommendations.
Each night I look at the ones most likely to move taking a good look at the after hours market. KOP traded as high as 27.70, ended at 27.45 and had started at 26.65 (yesterdays 4 pm close). TRN numbers were 48.75, 47.50, and 46.75. DRI numbers were 44.50, 41.35, and 40.70. So the plan for all you home gamers - is to try to figure out if at 8 am there is going to be enough interest to try shorting at that time or to wait until the opening. His 4 lettered stocks under $20 are much more likely to be shortable at 8 then any high priced or NYSE stocks. Last nights were all 3 letters stocks and ones without a great deal of volume - hard to play but I was determined. You watch the action at 8 and/or 9:30. Sometimes these work out were you can short twice. Sometimes it is even crazier were you can short, go long, short again and then go long again. Regardless - the mouth puts them into play. You try shorting them around yesterdays after market high with a minimum target of the after hour low and if you get lucky - yesterdays close. The tricky part is when to pull the trigger.
All 3 stocks looked like there was not going to be enough volume to play until the open - correct guess. I wanted to short KOP in the 27.70 area - TRN somewhere above 48 and DRI around 41.45. I caught KOP at 27.70, TRN at 48.12 and had an order for DRI at 41.40 but pulled it thinking I missed but 5 minutes later it would have gotten filled. So I had good entries but a smaller number of shares than I would like. I then covered too quickly on both and left too much money on the table. I was nervous about the Dow opening over 13k and being short. Such is life and tomorrow is another day. If you play the big mouths stocks correctly - you can make a lot of mad.. er.. I mean fast ... er... I mean easy money.
The numbers gross +165, net +155 and shares traded 2000. Work cut my trading day short.

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

I'm Yining while it's Yanging - 4/24/2007

Yesterday and today I felt I was a day late and a dollar short. On Monday after the market opened, I noticed the Bios and Steels had big moves going. If I looked at one, I was missing setups in the other and so far. Today, I had a list of possible setups and as I went thru them, I was always a few minutes too late.
Each day I create a list of stocks I want to follow and planned trades. Many of them are trades in the premarket or on the open. After that I am either going to the strong industry or a list of earnings hit or misses. I have not found a good method to following more an a few stocks at a time or how to alert me when something happens. If everyone has any ideas please leave a comment or email me. I have thought to maybe try Trade-Ideas.
Today's numbers - gross +10, net +7, shares traded 1400

Monday, April 23, 2007

Building the battle station

I believe like The Donald, you can own enough real estate - by that I mean screen space. Today my 3rd 24 inch monitor arrived and was put into place. Over the course of 18 months, I knew if I was ever going to be serious about trading I felt I needed a new set of toys. So I started upgrading and upgrading. I start with one okay computer and one really piece of junk along with two 19 TV monitors. So piece by piece, I built my workspace. I got two new computers with one being a dual core, 3 24 inch windscreen monitors, a good printer, a very nice chair and installed new lights so I could see what I was doing. I truly believe if you are going to make it in this business, you need the right tools and something nice to sit on that does not make your butt fall to sleep.
Ps - I may be greedy and buy another 24 inch monitor and stack them but please don't tell my wife yet.

A Complete walk thru of a missed trade - 04/23/2007

Another miss on a possible great trade. I have a feeling whoever reads this blog is getting sick about the near misses. I know I am. I know it is driving my wife nuts. FTEK was a the big mouth pick last night. The plan was to short 1000 shares right after 8 am near 23.70 if possible. Cover around 9 am with looking to go long (if a big decline from 8 am) for the open pop and then flipping to short 2000 shares soon after. This is the general plan I have for 4 lettered stocks the big month recommends.
Coming out of the gate the amount of volume was far less than expected. Still I thought it was a good possibility and started looking for places to short. Got filled on 500 and after sitting on them and seeing the market doing nothing, I covered at 23.55 after nine. I was assuming there would be a pop at the open that I did not want to be short in. That pop would be the next short opportunity thinking maybe between 23.70 and 23.90. The pop came and I paused I moment too long. Tried shorting with a order at 23.72, then 23.65 and finally at 23.60 but at that point, the stock was falling too fast to short. God, I wish it was an ETF. So if I would have filled the order, I do not believe FTEK would have broke 23.00 so just above it was my target. Nice trade plan, stock somewhat played along but I made a big $11 after commissions.
The rest of the day was nothing much to write about.
The numbers - gross +107, net +76, shares traded 6200

Sunday, April 22, 2007

Summer!!!! 4/20/2007

I know I am posting this late but NJ had 3 straight days of 70 plus weather. It has been crazy here. We had Fall until Thanksgiving then Spring until Feb then Winter until just recently and now bingo Summer.
I lost a little money on Friday and did very little trading. I did not feel in sync with anything this week and was riding a 6 trade losing streak. Once I have 3 or more in a row - I tend to pull back a lot. It starts messing with my head. I seem to have the money management part down well - maybe too well. I need to take more risk and have a little larger stop losses to make this work I believe. I mean I had 6 losses in a row and I took less than 1/2 percent hit in my account value.
The second reason for the slow day on Friday was I am still battling with an evil insurance company about a claim that should have been finished 6 months ago. Every time I think of life getting in the way of trading I will remember DT's post - Happy Monday.
One comment I will make about my Friday is even though I lost a few dollars - I followed my rules so I really do not care. I hope everyone had as much fun as I did this weekend. I clean cars and windows and worked on a deck but the sky was blue and the sun was warm for the first time this year.
The numbers - gross -28, net -41 shared traded 3200

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Fool me once shame on you ....... - 4/19/2007

Fool me twice shame on me. Fool me a thousand times - while I am F. A really sick joke comes to mind but I will not share it because of the sad events at "VT". I may be sick but I am not that sick. This is painful. I thought or one of my goals of doing a blog is to become more discipline. Just writing adds more structure. Being a part of the "VO" is more revealing. It is one thing to lose money and no one knowing. Its another to lose money and have your wife know. But it is really something else to lose money and a bunch of the world knows and then finds out you did it because you didn't follow your own advice and you are doing the same mistakes over and over.
Above are two examples of how I should not trade. Everyone of my trades today would fall into the category of this is how I know I should not trade. DSL is a recommendation by the big mouth on TV. It was up a lot in after hours and popped up in the premarket. I knew it was going to be a very thought trade but the though ones are usually the one that work. I shorted 200 shares near 8 am at 68.88. Got filled on 3/4's at 68.91 and the rest at 68.88 10 minutes later. Good so far. Now I should be looking to add to the position. The position should be 500 to 1000 shares. I did not. Started getting chicken but did not cover. The trade started going in my favor and bingo - I hit a bid at 68.50. Why - I do not know? There was no reason yet. Before I could even see my fill the stock was still falling. 40 cents on a lousy 200 shares. Lots of Happy Meals. I try holding on to shorts in the morning until 9:15 because that is when you should go long for the big mouth opening pop. A little risky with this stock but the open did not take out the morning high and lost power quickly - short the sucker again but did not. Stupid.
The second is becoming my favorite stock - AKS. What have I wrote about in the past? What have I told myself a 1000 times before? How have I lost money over and over? Do not buy breakouts on the steels or slower moving stocks. They seldom work. AKS breakout to new daily highs 5 times and only the last one worked. 3 of the 4 other times the pullbacks were far enough to stop me out even though I traded this stock only once today. I had a buy stop at 26.51 - got slipped to 26.54 around 10:30 and stopped out minutes later.
Three things I did wrong today. I did not fill out a position. I did not sit on my hands when a trade was going in my favor. I did not buy a pullback instead bought a breakout. Someone please hit me.
The Numbers - gross -293, net -325, shares traded 5400

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

A better day - 4/18/2007

My trading day got started today kind of off. You ever meet me in person - I like to talk way too much. This morning I was spending too much time IMing with friends and answering emails. The kind of stuff that should done later in the day. Need to be discipline.

Yesterday and today - I picked the right stocks but did not stay with them. Yesterday I had a small lost - today I made it back. Both days if I had just sat on my hands, I would have made a deceit amount of money. Example below.

MNST was one of big mouth's stocks from the night before. I should have been selling it short in the premarket but see first paragraph above. I did watch the action for the first bar of the opening and it looked like it was already to fall. I sold short a 1000 shares and was looking to sell another after the trade started my way. The next 5 minutes the stock bounced between 44.68 and 44.78. I started putting my stop loss order at 44.85 but something inside said don't let this turn into a loser and I bailed on the last bar before it started decline. Crap or I mean CRAP. I tried to get back in but the decline was too quick and then the stock stabilized around 44.45 for an hour before cracking again. I should have sold 1000k in premarket. Sold another 1000k after seeing the stock was out of gas on the open. Covered half at 44.45 and the other half at 44 even. I have a novel idea - maybe I read and follow my own Blog!

A side note Dinosaur Trader is doing a VO (vitural office) were he is posting traders results on a daily basis. I decided to join after finding Glen from was also joining and DT was excepting new traders - thanks DT. Thank God I made a profit on my first day.

The numbers - Gross 170.00 Net 137.00 Shares Traded 8600

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Do I stay or do I go - 4/17/2007

I am finding out that a high number of my stocks prove to be correct but I am not sticking around long enough to cash in. Two reasons - either I cut a losing position before the stop loss is hit not liking something with the stock or the market or I cut it lose because it is taking too long to go in my favor. I had 5 trades today. One was for a gain and the other four were loses. The net has down $150 (no big deal) but if I had held to my original stop loss idea. One came to a cent of the stop and the others did not. Giving these stocks enough time to move could have made this a very good day for me.

A second thought of the day, is I am finding myself not fully following my plan I have for each trade. At the beginning of the premarket, TELK was trading many more shares than it should - a Biotech with trial results. My first buy was 500 shares at 6.75. I had planned to buy a least 2000 shares as a base position where if the trade went in my favorite I may add an additional 3000 shares. After the first buy the stock never traded above 6.75 and spent most of the morning between 6.40 to 6.60. I know you should not add to a loser but the plan was to build the position and maybe at a better price. Being 25 cents under on a 6 dollar - I lost my nerve and sold the position at 6.50 instead using the lower prices to build a position. As you can see it never went below 6.30 and was mainly between 6.40 and 6.60. If I has bought the rest down there, I could lowered my cost to maybe 6.50/6.60. See above - I would have also needed to sit on my hands until the open. A course the stock popped on the open and ran to 7.50 before falling back.


A big sign is above my desk which I fail to read as often as I should -

The Most $$$$$$$ is made by sitting on your hands!!!!!!


Monday, April 16, 2007

Two different views - two different results - 4/16/2007

One of the things I find fascinating with trading - one can look at a chart and can up with so many different ways of trading it. In extreme cases, some traders can have a chart where it is a perfectly good idea to buy a stock and just as good to sell. I have to buy examples below:

One of my favorite sectors is the steels and I like trading AKS. I have been trading breakouts to new inter day highs for a while with some success but not real great. A trader in the chat room (one of the good ones) pointed out an example or two of charts setting up by pulling back with a trader-x type trade. The chart on the left is how I looked at things. I bought the breakout to new highs 24.50 and once the stock started trading sideways, I sold at 25.65 for a quick profit. When the stock broke to a new later around 10:35 I did not get in because it look to extended and other steels were not trading well. If I was looking at the chart on the right, I would not have taken the first trade (and should not have) but had guts to take the second one because the risk would have been only 10 cents.

In the second example, I took a trade at a new high 50.86 with a stop below the recent low. I got stopped out just to see the stock continue higher. If I was playing the pullback bars and using the lows as stops, I had entry points once the highs were broken on the 2nd, 6th, and 8th bars. This would have allowed me to build a position and make a decent profit off of a stock that did not have that big move. In both cases (and I hope I caught the other traders thoughts correctly), I would have done better using the charts on the right. End of result of the day - never got in sync with markets and lost 150.

Saturday, April 14, 2007

Drinking and Drving - Do not ... I mean 4/13/2007

Drinking and trading do not mix at least for me. I did very little trading Friday because it was hard to focus after going to an awards dinner Thursday night. Looking forward to Sunday night to start checking out the foreign and currency markets. Net +44.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Crap - 4/12/2007

Again one of my favorite types of setups to trade or I thought. A Biotech with results news. I got up early this morning, turned on the machines and saw MEDI trading like crazy just before 7 am. Without thinking about it, I bought a 1000 shares at 39 and got filled in 2 seconds. Started looking around for the news and found none. Instead of thinking correctly figuring that someone knew something, I hit a bid quick on half the shares for a small but nice gain. After waiting for a minutes more, I blew out the rest near my entry point and thought it was time for coffee and a shower. Can someone just hit me? I came back 30 minutes later and it was still trading between 39 and 39.50 and still no news. Instead of buying again - I thought some nut must have recommended it and it might be a short later. Crap.

Other than that the day was filled with me not giving my trades long enough to work and my stops being too close. Again my broker will be happy with me and my net result is now I can go out and buy a bunch of happy meals.

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

The Good, The Bad, and Why didn't I wait - 4/11/2007

First the good - if you look at HSC between noon and a little after 1 pm, you will see what I thought was a nice head and shoulders bottom forming. The lead steel X was beginning to move again so I bought HSC at 46.70 and sold about 10 minutes later at 46.85 when it looked like it was finished. A very nice quick trade. I do think I should learn to hold on longer and break my sells up. I excepted a 20 cents move based on the pattern but only took 15 because I got nervous too quickly. I should have sold half and the rest at the target.

Next the Bad - this is one of my favorite patterns to trade. Why I did not jump all over it I do not know. I like to bottom fish earning warnings. If I played this correctly, I would have tried buying in premarket at 18.35 soon after 8 am and would have been stopped out hopefully at even 30 minutes later. I would go in again at the next sign of a bottom at 18.15. If then on the open, the stock does not take the low out and starts showing green bars, I know I should have a winner. I would then try to add to the position. The stock gave a great entry point of 18.25. I would take half off at plus 50 cents and guess the other half would have been plus 35-40 cents. This is how I should have played it. Instead - I took a couple of ten cent moves out of it when it was in the 18.20 to 18.50 range not trusting it was a better setup.

Now - why didn't I wait? I love it when big mouth recommends CHTR (or BRCD or LVLT). It is a fun stock to short. My plan was to try building a short position of about 6k shares with a cost if possible of 3.05. I had orders in at 3.03 thru 3.08. I did not get filled at 8 am (top tick was 3.02). So I waited for a minute or so and hit a bid at 3.01 for 1000 shares. Saw a bid at 3.00 for 5000 shares but was greedy and wanted my higher offers to be filled. They never did so instead of building a position at 2.99 to 3.00 I got bored with it and dumped the 1000 at 2.99 about an hour later. Reloaded my previous order hoping for a 9:30 spike and did not get it and stupidly did not short a bunch at 2.98. If I was only patient and waited, it could have been a good trade blowing it out at 2.92 once a bottom formed. Overall it was an okay day and again I traded a lot more shares than I usually do. I am beginning to believe it will be more profitable to go for a lot of smaller trades than a few bigger trades.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

One Dumb Error - 4/10/2007

I was very excited about today. The bad mouth on TV had giving out 5 stock picks. All of them were 4 letter names (Nasdaq - easier to trade) and all of them reacted with good gains in the aftermarket. The names were ROSE, INCY, VCLK, AQNT and DIVX. ROSE and INCY had big percent gains while DIVX had a big point gain. I could not wait. I had all my orders setup between my two brokerage accouts and was waiting to strike. Damn right off the bat - no shares in DIVX to short. Bingo again - AQNT, VCLK and ROSE all looked like it was going to be too hard to short in the premarket.

So lets pick on INCY. I got a 2k short done at 7.72, waited and added another 2k short at 7.71. Thought to myself maybe another but decided not to. Time to put in stop loss order. Lets see - buy to cover 2000 at 7.85 good for the premarket/day and buy to cover 2000 at .792 good for the day. Crap the second one should have been for premarket/day not just day. Shit what just happened. 2000 shares just got cover - oh F - I did not make it a stop - just a limit order above the market. While I was being stupid, INCY fell to 7.65 where I covered the other half being so pissed off a myself. The I watched in great frustration as INCY drops another 25 cents before the open. The trade nets me $60 when it should have made me $1200. Thank god I cleared me head quickly and I was able to make a couple of bucks off shorting the open on the stock. I made a few other trades during the but the only one of note was being short Rose. I made a small gain on it when if I had the guts, I could have made it a very good trade.

Going back to INCY - it is a favorite type of stock to trade when the big mouth puts in play. You know there will be a lot of shares flying around and the spreads should be tight. With it being a low price stock, you can sometimes short it on the 8:00 am pop, cover it at 8:30-9:00, then buy it at 9:25 if the MM's play nice, selling it into the opening surge and then selling it short 5 to 10 minutes after the open.

Again these are the days that I think frustrate me the most as a trader. When you have a good trade or trade idea and you screw it up by mistyping. Today was also a milestone for me - I had never traded over 15000 shares before. At least my broker is happy.

Monday, April 9, 2007

No Trades - 4/9/2007

I got out of bed and just did not feel like doing battle with the markets today. I have found that if I am not up for a fight - I should just call it a day. In the long run, it saves me lots of money.

Friday, April 6, 2007

A good trade example - 4/6/2007

This is a great example of a setup I would trade (and lose money on ) if it was a regular trading day. Many times I look to fade the initial reaction to a major econ report. The first dive in the EURO was off on the jobs report. It rebounded and then retested the move about 15 minutes later. This is where I would would have bought putting a small stop below. Seeing the EURO just went sideways for a couple of hours, on a regular day, I would sell the position and think about reversing. If the low does not hold soon after the first low (within minutes), it is a good bet to then go short.
With today being Good Friday - all I can say is Happy Easter.

Another Number on the Meter - 4/6/2006

Today the life meter clicked another number for me and last night I again proved I am not young anymore. Thank God it is not a regular trading day today. I played too many games of Racquetball and needed to take a pain pill for my back when I got home. I can't seem to shake the cobwebs out of my head today.

Thursday, April 5, 2007

Chasing Parked Cars - 4/5/2007

Today all I did was make my broker happy. I made a couple of trades with a net of -40. I made the comment in the chat room that my trading day would have been more enjoyable if I had been chasing parked cars instead.

The chat room is a good room. A lot of sharing of both the good and bad in the life of day trading.

Currency Review - 4/5/2007

I spend a lot of time looking at the Currencies and wish I could figure out a plan to trade them overnight. I do not have the guts yet to pull it off or even try. I have allowed trades to go overnight that I had entered but none where the trigger would happen while I am sleeping. Above are 3 examples of why I would want to trade at night. I am thinking to have Bracket orders where if a range is broken out of, I would buy or sell with a 30 PIP stop and a 60 PIP target or using a 30 PIP trailing stop.

For the YEN, EURO and CAD both late night 4/2 and 4/5 had opprotunies. The YEN on the 4/5 would have not been a breakout trade but a trade I wanted to take going long in the 118.40-118.50 area.

A work is progress.

Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Watch List for 4/5/2007

One of my main focus areas is the USD/JPY now that it has made a new level and/or range. I would looking to go long in the 118.40 to 118.50 and selling it if it had any trouble with the 119.00 area.

Longs - ACLS, ALXA, TGEN, RACK and the steels.
Short - CMI

Dummy Trades or A Dummy Trading 4/4/2007

I frustrating start to a nothing day. As I stated on how I trade, one of my favorite currency plays appeared on my screen. Much to my detriment, I had not shaken the cobwebs out of my head to recognize it before it got away. If you look closely you will see in the middle of the night, USD/JPY had popped its head briefly above 119.00 twice. It then about 7:15 made a third dash over the 119.00 level peaking at 119.10 before going lower. A screaming short sell if I had ever saw one where you hopefully would fill around 119.00 give a pip or two with a target outside the bottom end of the range. A target of about 118.60 which would be just above the previous resistance level. Risk 10 pips to make 40 on a picture perfect trade. The trading Gods were in a giving mode today and my coffee was not working for me yet. Mental note - maybe I can live without sleep during the week?

The rest of the day did not go any better. I did buy MVIS in premarket and got out at 4.20 for the trade of the day along with making a little in FSLR. My biggest mistake of the day was seeing the Steels get in gear but not in a crazy way. I tried buying breakouts there instead I should have been buying dips. I pointed out IMCL in the chat room but did not take it and missed a few good calls on PXD and MON. Another day that I thought should have been good for me but has not.

Tuesday, April 3, 2007

Important Lessons 4/3/2007

Two important things I have learned that I have never read or been told about:

One - if a stock makes a big move up or down at 8:00 AM, it should have some type of similar move at 9:30. If not, it is a high probability of going the other way. Case in point - see CEGE below. I have seen this work many times.

Two - watch how a stock trades before 7:30 (the early bird hardcore traders), at 7:30 (Fido starts trading), at 8:00 (Schwab, Scottrade and other general public brokers), at 9:15 (Fido shuts down it premarket), at 9:25, 9:28 (watch how the market makers setup) and 9:30 (when the on the open trading public get their orders executed), this will give you clues on who is trading the stock and sometimes you can take advantage of it.

How to throw a lot of easy money away 4/3/2007

The above chart is CEGE - a biotech. With all the action in DNDN, I expected some movements out of CEGE. I did not have to wait long. When I first looked this morning, CEGE was trading just before 7:00 AM up about 10%. After watching the volume grow, I thought this was ripe for a good pop up. Many times if there is good volume before 8:00 when most of the main stream Brokers allow trading, a stock will run. I started fishing around 4.80 area and got filled on 100 shares. Got myself a cup of coffee and should have started building a position of 2-5k but I did not. Why? God only knows and he did not tell me. I expected a move of 50 to 100 cents which happened right on time and I got out of my - haha - big 100 shares with a 65 cent pr0fit. I saw my target was right and the stock did nothing for the rest of the morning. CEGE then did not move up on the Open at all. The bell rang again - short the crap out of it. I did not. Why again God only knows and he's not talking. I would have/should have covered the position with the break of the trendline at about 11:20 AM. Then if one would have followed the stock for the rest of the day, it put in a perfect head and shoulders bottom giving a very pretty and simple entry point just before 1:00 PM. Did I do this ? No but this time I know why. I had to go to work. This type of action is most fustrating for me because with my knowledge this trade should have been very easy money.

This is one of my trade setups I like. A downgrade on a stock I do not think has anything wrong with it. I noticed that the 71.50 was holding good in the premarket. If I was not mentally stuck today, I would have put on a half position at 71.50 and then added if it held the open, sell a half at 72.25 and maybe holding on to the other half most of the day.

This chart of the USD/JPY which I did trade but poorly. The USD/JPY had been hitting a brick wall at about 118.40 many times during the last few weeks. The fib number of 50% was sitting at about 118.65 meaning in my mind if it could get thru 118.40, it would go to 118.65. If it could get through there, maybe 119.50 would be in the cards. The trade setup should have been buy at 117.90 looking for 118.40. Buy another at 118.40 looking for 118.65 and buy another at 118.65 looking for 119.50 with selling two of them at 119.00 and the other at 119.50 using about a 35 pip stop. I did not go this aggressive. I waited without orders for the break of 118.40 which happened in the middle of the night so I spent the rest of the day trying to get into this run. I got in at 118.75 on a breakout of the 3 hours of sideways action. I decided to get out at 118.90 because I assumed there would be a pull back first from the 119.00 area. So far I am right and looking to get in maybe back at the 118.65 area.

Bottom line of the day - a couple of trades - a lack of aggressiveness - and only $150 to show for a the work.

Monday, April 2, 2007

Watch list for 4/3/2007

Shorts - ABT, KMP, AUY

Watch list of more longs - HOLX, AH, UNM, IIVI, KNL, CNMD, PCG, NWN, GRA, GXP, DBD, NIHD, MBT, AEP, STR

One good thing about today 4/2/2007

I made my last payment today to Cornell. I have survived 8 years (4 years of Exeter, 4 years of Cornell) of making big monthly payments for my daughter's eduction. She graduates in May and is making me very proud. Somehow I did this with out taking any loans out. She will payoff 33K in government loans.

A do nothing Day 4/2/2007

Nothing wanted to get in sync today. First - no shares to short on JSDA so why look at it. Second - a great chat room was not working at Third - my IB account was having problems charting NYSE stocks properly.

I did see MBT in the pre-market and thought the 105 level would be a good place to buy fear but I did not. I saw the Steels start moving early in the session but got stopped out of AKS at even and did not have the guts to chase it. Saw RS but forget to continue watching it and missed the move. Saw HOT and had a buy stop at 67.52 for an hour before I pulled it. It would have worked later.

My biggest frustration of the day was MRK. Once the chat room was working - one of the regulars pointed out MRK and I chased it to get a starting position at 44.95. I had a buy stop to double my position at 45.02 with a stop on the old position of 44.75 and a stop on what could be the new position at 44.82 and a target of 45.28 of both. Unfortunately the trade was taking longer then I expected and I needed to meet the wife for lunch. That left me with the great debate - should I leave the orders in or pull them because I could not watch. I pulled them even with the stops being there. MRK rallied to 45.00 but not 45.01. Then dropped to 44.82 before taking off in the afternoon where the trade would have worked perfectly. Anybody who wants to an opinion - should I keep my orders in or out while being away?