Marketgeometry

Sunday, September 23, 2007

The Fed and Market views 9/23/2007







The above charts are Crude, Euro, TBond and Dow futures - 1 month/1 hour charts.
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I wanted to wait a couple of days to see how the markets reacted to the Fed cut and wanted to revisited my views that I believed the markets had a good chance of testing the recent lows or breaking them.
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This is how the markets have voted so far:
Crude Oil: the Fed is Dumb
Gold: the Fed are idiots
Dollar: how dumb can the Fed be?
Mortgage Rates: the Fed are morons
T-Bonds: the Fed is brain dead
Stock Markets: "Let's start partying like it is 1999"
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The bottom line: As long as there is not some crazy hidden problem out there, the stock market may have a problems with new highs but should work higher over the longer term. The Fed and other Central Banks do not want the markets to go down. The places to be are gold, oil, natural resources and dollar related plays.
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I think the Fed notes will say something like this "Here have another bottle of JD. You can always stop drinking tomorrow". I do not know about you but I am alarmed at the rate prices are going up for food and energy. Two things I have a hard time getting by without.



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