Watch List for 4/5/2007

One of my main focus areas is the USD/JPY now that it has made a new level and/or range. I would looking to go long in the 118.40 to 118.50 and selling it if it had any trouble with the 119.00 area.

Longs - ACLS, ALXA, TGEN, RACK and the steels.
Short - CMI

Dummy Trades or A Dummy Trading 4/4/2007

I frustrating start to a nothing day. As I stated on how I trade, one of my favorite currency plays appeared on my screen. Much to my detriment, I had not shaken the cobwebs out of my head to recognize it before it got away. If you look closely you will see in the middle of the night, USD/JPY had popped its head briefly above 119.00 twice. It then about 7:15 made a third dash over the 119.00 level peaking at 119.10 before going lower. A screaming short sell if I had ever saw one where you hopefully would fill around 119.00 give a pip or two with a target outside the bottom end of the range. A target of about 118.60 which would be just above the previous resistance level. Risk 10 pips to make 40 on a picture perfect trade. The trading Gods were in a giving mode today and my coffee was not working for me yet. Mental note - maybe I can live without sleep during the week?

The rest of the day did not go any better. I did buy MVIS in premarket and got out at 4.20 for the trade of the day along with making a little in FSLR. My biggest mistake of the day was seeing the Steels get in gear but not in a crazy way. I tried buying breakouts there instead I should have been buying dips. I pointed out IMCL in the chat room but did not take it and missed a few good calls on PXD and MON. Another day that I thought should have been good for me but has not.

Important Lessons 4/3/2007

Two important things I have learned that I have never read or been told about:

One - if a stock makes a big move up or down at 8:00 AM, it should have some type of similar move at 9:30. If not, it is a high probability of going the other way. Case in point - see CEGE below. I have seen this work many times.

Two - watch how a stock trades before 7:30 (the early bird hardcore traders), at 7:30 (Fido starts trading), at 8:00 (Schwab, Scottrade and other general public brokers), at 9:15 (Fido shuts down it premarket), at 9:25, 9:28 (watch how the market makers setup) and 9:30 (when the on the open trading public get their orders executed), this will give you clues on who is trading the stock and sometimes you can take advantage of it.

How to throw a lot of easy money away 4/3/2007

The above chart is CEGE - a biotech. With all the action in DNDN, I expected some movements out of CEGE. I did not have to wait long. When I first looked this morning, CEGE was trading just before 7:00 AM up about 10%. After watching the volume grow, I thought this was ripe for a good pop up. Many times if there is good volume before 8:00 when most of the main stream Brokers allow trading, a stock will run. I started fishing around 4.80 area and got filled on 100 shares. Got myself a cup of coffee and should have started building a position of 2-5k but I did not. Why? God only knows and he did not tell me. I expected a move of 50 to 100 cents which happened right on time and I got out of my - haha - big 100 shares with a 65 cent pr0fit. I saw my target was right and the stock did nothing for the rest of the morning. CEGE then did not move up on the Open at all. The bell rang again - short the crap out of it. I did not. Why again God only knows and he's not talking. I would have/should have covered the position with the break of the trendline at about 11:20 AM. Then if one would have followed the stock for the rest of the day, it put in a perfect head and shoulders bottom giving a very pretty and simple entry point just before 1:00 PM. Did I do this ? No but this time I know why. I had to go to work. This type of action is most fustrating for me because with my knowledge this trade should have been very easy money.


This is one of my trade setups I like. A downgrade on a stock I do not think has anything wrong with it. I noticed that the 71.50 was holding good in the premarket. If I was not mentally stuck today, I would have put on a half position at 71.50 and then added if it held the open, sell a half at 72.25 and maybe holding on to the other half most of the day.


This chart of the USD/JPY which I did trade but poorly. The USD/JPY had been hitting a brick wall at about 118.40 many times during the last few weeks. The fib number of 50% was sitting at about 118.65 meaning in my mind if it could get thru 118.40, it would go to 118.65. If it could get through there, maybe 119.50 would be in the cards. The trade setup should have been buy at 117.90 looking for 118.40. Buy another at 118.40 looking for 118.65 and buy another at 118.65 looking for 119.50 with selling two of them at 119.00 and the other at 119.50 using about a 35 pip stop. I did not go this aggressive. I waited without orders for the break of 118.40 which happened in the middle of the night so I spent the rest of the day trying to get into this run. I got in at 118.75 on a breakout of the 3 hours of sideways action. I decided to get out at 118.90 because I assumed there would be a pull back first from the 119.00 area. So far I am right and looking to get in maybe back at the 118.65 area.

Bottom line of the day - a couple of trades - a lack of aggressiveness - and only $150 to show for a the work.

Watch list for 4/3/2007

Longs - CDNS, RYI, FCSX, NSTR
Shorts - ABT, KMP, AUY

Watch list of more longs - HOLX, AH, UNM, IIVI, KNL, CNMD, PCG, NWN, GRA, GXP, DBD, NIHD, MBT, AEP, STR

One good thing about today 4/2/2007

I made my last payment today to Cornell. I have survived 8 years (4 years of Exeter, 4 years of Cornell) of making big monthly payments for my daughter's eduction. She graduates in May and is making me very proud. Somehow I did this with out taking any loans out. She will payoff 33K in government loans.

A do nothing Day 4/2/2007

Nothing wanted to get in sync today. First - no shares to short on JSDA so why look at it. Second - a great chat room was not working at DehTrader.com. Third - my IB account was having problems charting NYSE stocks properly.

I did see MBT in the pre-market and thought the 105 level would be a good place to buy fear but I did not. I saw the Steels start moving early in the session but got stopped out of AKS at even and did not have the guts to chase it. Saw RS but forget to continue watching it and missed the move. Saw HOT and had a buy stop at 67.52 for an hour before I pulled it. It would have worked later.

My biggest frustration of the day was MRK. Once the chat room was working - one of the regulars pointed out MRK and I chased it to get a starting position at 44.95. I had a buy stop to double my position at 45.02 with a stop on the old position of 44.75 and a stop on what could be the new position at 44.82 and a target of 45.28 of both. Unfortunately the trade was taking longer then I expected and I needed to meet the wife for lunch. That left me with the great debate - should I leave the orders in or pull them because I could not watch. I pulled them even with the stops being there. MRK rallied to 45.00 but not 45.01. Then dropped to 44.82 before taking off in the afternoon where the trade would have worked perfectly. Anybody who wants to an opinion - should I keep my orders in or out while being away?