I got smoked 3/19/2010

It is interesting how life works at times and painfully. I really was pissed at my self where I did not take advantage of the Big Mouth Stocks while day after day they were great plays. On Friday, I had a chance to look at the market because of a freak schedule change. If the Big Mouth Stock showed any action, I was going not to be afraid. I was going to hit it and hit it hard. I did not know if was going to hit back.
-
I started my short soon after the market opened with a 1/3 size lot. Start feeling lots of pain. First peak was made, now thinking the turn was at hand, I added a second 1/3. I had a sell stop for a third 1/3 if the stock broke. I also decided I could not continue to hit it as it went higher so I placed a stop above the 5 minute high. Seconds later I was taken with a big loss. I played the stock like I should have been playing all these Big Mouth Stocks. If I was as aggressive with them as I was with this one, I would be a very happy man but still had taken a big loss on Friday.
-
I then added to this mess by allowing it to control the rest of my trades. If I was as agressive with them the rest of the morning, I would have been in the black. Damn this game is one big PITA.
-
The numbers:
Stocks: gross -811 net -829 shares 3600
Stock Futures: none
Forex: none
-
Trading the big mouth stocks I see them playing out this way. For every 20 big mouth stocks traded, I would expect 12 to be gains of around $500, 5 would be break even and 3 would produce loses of $1000 like the one today. So your win rate would be 4 times your loss rate but your average gain would be half of your average loss. In a given month, about 30 Big Mouth Stocks meet my trade plans. This should produce about a gain of $4500 a month. Sounds so simple.
-
I was on plan years ago but I never really got back to it totally. I have made a plan - I need to follow it- damn it.

Yin and Yang again 9/11/2007

Very simple wave analysis. I think of the Yin/Yang as a way the markets correct. An 1.6 extension of the first wave would be my worst case scenario. This would put us under 12000 and give us above a 20 percent correction. I have many different points before that were the markets could stop but I like to think in terms - How bad could it get without having a Black Swan show.

Week Review 6/24/2007

ET did a very good job of reviewing his trading on a post at his Blogsite. I was in the mode for the same just not as neat. I have been doing some type of daytrading for about 15 months now. During that time I was more or less playing around with a few ideas until about October. I think in October I concluded I could do this and make it work. Before than I had tons of interruptions were I would not trade for days sometimes weeks. One point I only had done one trade in a period of 10 weeks.
-
Back in March I had increased my account size from 25k to 75k and started trading like a madman. I had no idea what I was doing. In March alone, I generated over $1000 in commissions and made a big $61. One thing that also happened was, I found I needed to find a good method to my madness. In other words, create a trading plan.
-
As I had wrote before, I did come up with one. Most days I tried to follow it well. Most days I fail. The plan is good but the guts to just go do it so far in a little lacking. I feel I am getting closer to taking the training wheels off and just have at it.
-
This process was proved to me that I was not born a good trader but I can become a great trader. So much of what I see now makes sense that if I followed the plan and used good money management, I should be able to make good money.
-
This has been a dream of mine for a long while. I first got turned on to the markets when I was 12. Somehow in life, I picked plan B and stuck with it way too long. The words from Pink Floyd keep going thru my head. "And then one day you find ten years have got behind you No one told you when to run, you missed the starting gun." I love Pink Floyd but I digress.
-
Last week was a prefect example of all most there. I had a ton of trades that I had planned or saw but could only get a few pulled off. And on the ones I did that worked out great, I only had a 1/2 position on. Last week was a good week for me, but it should have been my best week ever. I made $600 but in my mind it should have been $5000.
-
I should not bee that hard on myself because of the distractions (medical procedure and parents) I had to deal with, but still, if you see it, you must attack, attack, attack! That was a movie, wasn't it? (Tora, Tora, Tora)
-
So many new traders have the problem of over trading. I have the problem of under trading or not trading fast enough.
-
This is my Sunday mind dump. This is where I am as a trader. I have gone a long way but I need to go a lot farther. I am still proud of the fact I have taught myself so much with not blowing up.

Pissed - 6/21/2007

I am so pissed this morning. I did not follow my plan I got greedy and I paid a big price. I use my TD to put shorts on the open and then fill out the positions in my IB account. Maybe that sounds mad but it works for me. I instead put my orders in my TD account to trade premarket instead of open. I got filled on two in premakret spikes on two big mouth stocks. Suddenly I was in a world of hurt. I then added to my stupidity by pulling my orders on the third stock.
-
So by not trading my plan I have a -42 and a -123 trade. If I followed the plan, I would have a +500, +500 and a +200 and even more if I added with my IB account. Stupid Stupid Stupid.

Buzz Saw 6/14/2007

The big Mouth recommended a couple of Chinese stocks. I was licking my chops thinking each would have a good pop at the open and it would be easy, er I mean fast money. Instead I ran into a buzz saw. I was looking to short FMCN at 45.75 so I had orders in at 45.60, 45.75 and I should have had one in at 45.90. I got filled. I had a half position order in on CEO at 106.25 and was filled at 106.28. An order at 31.25 on SSW and an order at 48.30 on CHL. I knew in a heart beat something was just not right so instead of waiting around, I cancelled the two unfilled orders and started working the others. I should have sat on the FMCN because it had signs of working but with the market running up I did not want to push it. I got got out at 45.57 for a small gain. I nearly got my CEO order killed before it got filled. Sometimes my guts just say "Get me out of here". I held CEO for a couple of minutes but saw so many stocks running, I took a quick loss instead of adding another part. So when I saw my plan not working I did not stick around. I should have lost about $750 if I just stuck it out, even more if I did not keep my stops. Bottom line - I walk away from this mess with a $47 gain.

-

After that I tried getting into the steels with no luck and missed a great trade in CLWR that was calling out in the DehTrader chat room. Then worked called.

-

The numbers - gross +59 net +47 shares traded 2400

Blackjack - 5/13/2007

I was sitting at a Blackjack table in AC today and it reminded me of trading. I am relatively new at the game so I bring my little cheat sheet with me. I think out of all the hands, I played, I only play two not following the correct move. I also had enough money with me to deal with the draw downs. I did OK - made $120 after 2 hours.
-
I watched the other players at the table. A gentleman who seem to understand the game well and made all the correct moves was losing. I said too bad and he said " if you play the game perfect - it is a 50/50 bet. I win sometimes and loss sometimes - that is the game". He knew what he was doing and what to expect.
-
I saw the other players at the table. Sometimes making large bets - sometimes making small bets. Sometimes they were making plays that just made no sense. They seem to have no plan or any idea on what they were doing. The ones who were making the most correct plays, betting the same amount and had enough money to weather the ups and downs - stayed in the game and do not lose all their money.
-
It sounds like trading especially day/swing trading.

Finally a decent day - 5/4/2007

Finally a decent day. Not a big day or killer - just a day of solid trading. A day I feel proud of. The first one I have had in a few weeks. My confidence as doing this is a little shaky right now because I can't seem to get out of this rut I am in. I need to be more aggressive, trade bigger lots and act quicker. Too many times I think about a position 30 seconds too long and it is gone. Or I bail way too quickly on a position before it gets a chance to work. I did a much better job of entering positions today quicker and with a little bigger size. I should be trading 1000 to 2000 shares on most trades but I find myself never getting above 200-500 shares. I need to let loose. I have enough money in the account to do it and I do not depend on my trading for a living (yet).
-
I have been having the problem finding trades that our my own. Something I have said before in the past - you must trade your own trades. I do not mind being notified by others of stocks setting up but I try not to jump on a trade just because someone calls one out in the chat room.
-
To combat this problem, I am trying to find a method of trading that generates enough trades for me where I continue to watch the screens. Each night I have my planned trades, but so many times those trades are done or don't work by 9:45 and so I am left with what now. I don't use Trade-Ideas (thinking about it) and my own methods of scanning for trades is lacking. So I have found a section - Steels - that have caught my eye. Two of my favorite stocks in that sector are AKS and NUE. Both of them I am trying to learn how they trade. The others are RS, X, RIO, CMC, GNA and GGB. Mainly I want a stock that trades a million plus per day.
-
The trading plan for sector trading -

1. The general market needs to be up or going up or flat.


2. The sector needs to show some life.


3. Leading stocks in sector needs to be showing some strength.
   
4. Buy pull backs using the Slow Stochastic (5,3) if above conditions are meant and you get a bar or two of sideways action.


5. Add to position on additional signals if low of first signal is not broken or using any standard chart pattern methods (breaking of a trend line - etc.)
   
   

This is the game plan. We will see how successful I am pulling it off. I used this method three times today. I caught the pullback in AKS at 9:45 and 10:15 and NUE at 9:45. I should have caught both of them at about 12:30 when the steels stabilized, and the Stochastic signaled and the downward trend line was broken but I was at lunch.

-

The numbers - Gross +450, Net +407, shares traded 8600 (charts added Sunday night)

Trying something new - 4/27/2007

Yesterday was a day I decided to try something new. I am trying to find methods of trading that fit my personality and mindset. I feel this is very important for ones success. I have seen too many people try to get stock picks and/or methods from someone else only to see it does not work for them. You must understand what you are doing, what you are looking for and what your plan is. Relying on someone may seem like a short cut but I can't really think of anyone who has made it work. So the bottom line is, find you own style and make a plan around it. It is your own baby watch it grow.
-
I will continue to go after the Big Mouth trades along with looking for BioTech plays in the premarket, add in a picks from some trusted websites that I understand (anti-big mouth picks), and scan for news events (mainly earnings).
-
The two new ideas I am playing around with are - find one or two stocks and learn how they trade each day and the other - playing around with a couple of indicators to swing trade the currencies with.
-
Fridays trading I started trying to play with a couple stocks looking for that one or two to trade all the time. I should have stayed with shorting the big mouth ideas on the opening but I passed on them Friday. I played around with WFR in the premarket and made a couple of dollars. Again I am pissed that my size should have been bigger.
-
The numbers - gross +131, net +118 and shares traded 2600

My trading Style

I mainly trade currencies and stocks. I hope to one day add some futures too.

In currencies, I look for the following -

1. To fade big moves to economic reports. Wait for the first reaction minutes after the report. Watch the first pullback and then trade against the retest of the reaction high using a place somewhere past the reaction point as a stop. Reverse the trade if the stop is hit and it makes sense.
2. If the currency is in a range and breaks out, then goes back into the range, then looks to do it again, buy the move back into the range and many times it will go thru the range out the other side.
3. Play trendlines, chart formations, fib numbers.

In stocks, I look for the following -

1. To go long BioTech positive trial news(negative is too hard so far).
2. Go long or short good or bad earnings news or up/downgrades once a bottom or top looks to be in.
3. Fade the big month on TV when he moves a stock too far.
4. Trade breakouts of stocks making a new high from a flat top.
5. Go with trades from some popular Blog sites knowing the author will juice the stock or again if it reactions too much - fade the recommendation.

In any of the above cases, I make a list and a plan for each of the above cases. The only trades I make on the fly are from the Chat room or if I see an industry moving, I try to fine a good stock chart that goes with it.