Monday, April 30, 2007
The mouth had recommended two stocks - IOTN and PENN. There was no shares to short on IOTN. When this happens, I look to go long the stock instead. Looking for the 8 am pop, I made a big $50 on a IOTN long. PENN was not trading enough to play with. I looked for some Biotech news and saw none and saw none of the stocks having any volume at all with except AVNR. Went to news on stocks - nothing there - maybe ACP but that had a big spread. Any action in the stocks that might pop because of other Blogs - none there. Ok - let's wait until the open to see if PENN is a short and IOTN is a long. Open - trying to get a handle on IOTN. Should go long a couple of 1000 shares but the spread is acting weird and I can't find my place. While watching IOTN, I miss out on an easy short of PENN. ON to the next - scalping the steel stocks. There is very few entries there and I miss the two best while taking a health break (memo to self - buy a port-a-potty). Work calls and trading day is done for me. Boring.
The numbers - gross +55, net +50 and share traded (a big) 1000
Saturday, April 28, 2007
I will continue to go after the Big Mouth trades along with looking for BioTech plays in the premarket, add in a picks from some trusted websites that I understand (anti-big mouth picks), and scan for news events (mainly earnings).
The two new ideas I am playing around with are - find one or two stocks and learn how they trade each day and the other - playing around with a couple of indicators to swing trade the currencies with.
Fridays trading I started trying to play with a couple stocks looking for that one or two to trade all the time. I should have stayed with shorting the big mouth ideas on the opening but I passed on them Friday. I played around with WFR in the premarket and made a couple of dollars. Again I am pissed that my size should have been bigger.
The numbers - gross +131, net +118 and shares traded 2600
Thursday, April 26, 2007
I did play around with AAPL in the premarket and lost a few dollars. I can never get AAPL right so I just should stay away. In fact, the AAPL trade was just a pure dumb one to begin with. No real plan. Nothing else setup until the opening. Had a nice short in CAKE but as I have done so many times before I leave a lot of money on the table. It is frustrating. I only trade about a third of the setups or planned trades I see/have and only hold about a quarter of them long enough. If I do not chance those two facts, I will never be successful in this business.
The numbers - gross +90 net +73 and shares traded 1400.
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
I decided today to do battle with the mouth. He really is a nice guy and means well but his viewers do not trade his recommendations like they should. There were 3 last night - KOP TRN and DRI - his main recommendations.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Each day I create a list of stocks I want to follow and planned trades. Many of them are trades in the premarket or on the open. After that I am either going to the strong industry or a list of earnings hit or misses. I have not found a good method to following more an a few stocks at a time or how to alert me when something happens. If everyone has any ideas please leave a comment or email me. I have thought to maybe try Trade-Ideas.
Today's numbers - gross +10, net +7, shares traded 1400
Monday, April 23, 2007
Ps - I may be greedy and buy another 24 inch monitor and stack them but please don't tell my wife yet.
Sunday, April 22, 2007
I lost a little money on Friday and did very little trading. I did not feel in sync with anything this week and was riding a 6 trade losing streak. Once I have 3 or more in a row - I tend to pull back a lot. It starts messing with my head. I seem to have the money management part down well - maybe too well. I need to take more risk and have a little larger stop losses to make this work I believe. I mean I had 6 losses in a row and I took less than 1/2 percent hit in my account value.
The second reason for the slow day on Friday was I am still battling with an evil insurance company about a claim that should have been finished 6 months ago. Every time I think of life getting in the way of trading I will remember DT's post - Happy Monday.
One comment I will make about my Friday is even though I lost a few dollars - I followed my rules so I really do not care. I hope everyone had as much fun as I did this weekend. I clean cars and windows and worked on a deck but the sky was blue and the sun was warm for the first time this year.
The numbers - gross -28, net -41 shared traded 3200
Thursday, April 19, 2007
Fool me twice shame on me. Fool me a thousand times - while I am F. A really sick joke comes to mind but I will not share it because of the sad events at "VT". I may be sick but I am not that sick. This is painful. I thought or one of my goals of doing a blog is to become more discipline. Just writing adds more structure. Being a part of the "VO" is more revealing. It is one thing to lose money and no one knowing. Its another to lose money and have your wife know. But it is really something else to lose money and a bunch of the world knows and then finds out you did it because you didn't follow your own advice and you are doing the same mistakes over and over.
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Yesterday and today - I picked the right stocks but did not stay with them. Yesterday I had a small lost - today I made it back. Both days if I had just sat on my hands, I would have made a deceit amount of money. Example below.
MNST was one of big mouth's stocks from the night before. I should have been selling it short in the premarket but see first paragraph above. I did watch the action for the first bar of the opening and it looked like it was already to fall. I sold short a 1000 shares and was looking to sell another after the trade started my way. The next 5 minutes the stock bounced between 44.68 and 44.78. I started putting my stop loss order at 44.85 but something inside said don't let this turn into a loser and I bailed on the last bar before it started decline. Crap or I mean CRAP. I tried to get back in but the decline was too quick and then the stock stabilized around 44.45 for an hour before cracking again. I should have sold 1000k in premarket. Sold another 1000k after seeing the stock was out of gas on the open. Covered half at 44.45 and the other half at 44 even. I have a novel idea - maybe I read and follow my own Blog!
A side note Dinosaur Trader is doing a VO (vitural office) were he is posting traders results on a daily basis. I decided to join after finding Glen from DehTrader.com was also joining and DT was excepting new traders - thanks DT. Thank God I made a profit on my first day.
The numbers - Gross 170.00 Net 137.00 Shares Traded 8600
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Monday, April 16, 2007
One of my favorite sectors is the steels and I like trading AKS. I have been trading breakouts to new inter day highs for a while with some success but not real great. A trader in the chat room (one of the good ones) pointed out an example or two of charts setting up by pulling back with a trader-x type trade. The chart on the left is how I looked at things. I bought the breakout to new highs 24.50 and once the stock started trading sideways, I sold at 25.65 for a quick profit. When the stock broke to a new later around 10:35 I did not get in because it look to extended and other steels were not trading well. If I was looking at the chart on the right, I would not have taken the first trade (and should not have) but had guts to take the second one because the risk would have been only 10 cents.
In the second example, I took a trade at a new high 50.86 with a stop below the recent low. I got stopped out just to see the stock continue higher. If I was playing the pullback bars and using the lows as stops, I had entry points once the highs were broken on the 2nd, 6th, and 8th bars. This would have allowed me to build a position and make a decent profit off of a stock that did not have that big move. In both cases (and I hope I caught the other traders thoughts correctly), I would have done better using the charts on the right. End of result of the day - never got in sync with markets and lost 150.
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
First the good - if you look at HSC between noon and a little after 1 pm, you will see what I thought was a nice head and shoulders bottom forming. The lead steel X was beginning to move again so I bought HSC at 46.70 and sold about 10 minutes later at 46.85 when it looked like it was finished. A very nice quick trade. I do think I should learn to hold on longer and break my sells up. I excepted a 20 cents move based on the pattern but only took 15 because I got nervous too quickly. I should have sold half and the rest at the target.
Next the Bad - this is one of my favorite patterns to trade. Why I did not jump all over it I do not know. I like to bottom fish earning warnings. If I played this correctly, I would have tried buying in premarket at 18.35 soon after 8 am and would have been stopped out hopefully at even 30 minutes later. I would go in again at the next sign of a bottom at 18.15. If then on the open, the stock does not take the low out and starts showing green bars, I know I should have a winner. I would then try to add to the position. The stock gave a great entry point of 18.25. I would take half off at plus 50 cents and guess the other half would have been plus 35-40 cents. This is how I should have played it. Instead - I took a couple of ten cent moves out of it when it was in the 18.20 to 18.50 range not trusting it was a better setup.
Now - why didn't I wait? I love it when big mouth recommends CHTR (or BRCD or LVLT). It is a fun stock to short. My plan was to try building a short position of about 6k shares with a cost if possible of 3.05. I had orders in at 3.03 thru 3.08. I did not get filled at 8 am (top tick was 3.02). So I waited for a minute or so and hit a bid at 3.01 for 1000 shares. Saw a bid at 3.00 for 5000 shares but was greedy and wanted my higher offers to be filled. They never did so instead of building a position at 2.99 to 3.00 I got bored with it and dumped the 1000 at 2.99 about an hour later. Reloaded my previous order hoping for a 9:30 spike and did not get it and stupidly did not short a bunch at 2.98. If I was only patient and waited, it could have been a good trade blowing it out at 2.92 once a bottom formed. Overall it was an okay day and again I traded a lot more shares than I usually do. I am beginning to believe it will be more profitable to go for a lot of smaller trades than a few bigger trades.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Monday, April 9, 2007
Friday, April 6, 2007
Thursday, April 5, 2007
The chat room is a good room. A lot of sharing of both the good and bad in the life of day trading.
I spend a lot of time looking at the Currencies and wish I could figure out a plan to trade them overnight. I do not have the guts yet to pull it off or even try. I have allowed trades to go overnight that I had entered but none where the trigger would happen while I am sleeping. Above are 3 examples of why I would want to trade at night. I am thinking to have Bracket orders where if a range is broken out of, I would buy or sell with a 30 PIP stop and a 60 PIP target or using a 30 PIP trailing stop.
For the YEN, EURO and CAD both late night 4/2 and 4/5 had opprotunies. The YEN on the 4/5 would have not been a breakout trade but a trade I wanted to take going long in the 118.40-118.50 area.
A work is progress.
Wednesday, April 4, 2007
Longs - ACLS, ALXA, TGEN, RACK and the steels.
Short - CMI
I frustrating start to a nothing day. As I stated on how I trade, one of my favorite currency plays appeared on my screen. Much to my detriment, I had not shaken the cobwebs out of my head to recognize it before it got away. If you look closely you will see in the middle of the night, USD/JPY had popped its head briefly above 119.00 twice. It then about 7:15 made a third dash over the 119.00 level peaking at 119.10 before going lower. A screaming short sell if I had ever saw one where you hopefully would fill around 119.00 give a pip or two with a target outside the bottom end of the range. A target of about 118.60 which would be just above the previous resistance level. Risk 10 pips to make 40 on a picture perfect trade. The trading Gods were in a giving mode today and my coffee was not working for me yet. Mental note - maybe I can live without sleep during the week?
The rest of the day did not go any better. I did buy MVIS in premarket and got out at 4.20 for the trade of the day along with making a little in FSLR. My biggest mistake of the day was seeing the Steels get in gear but not in a crazy way. I tried buying breakouts there instead I should have been buying dips. I pointed out IMCL in the chat room but did not take it and missed a few good calls on PXD and MON. Another day that I thought should have been good for me but has not.
Tuesday, April 3, 2007
One - if a stock makes a big move up or down at 8:00 AM, it should have some type of similar move at 9:30. If not, it is a high probability of going the other way. Case in point - see CEGE below. I have seen this work many times.
Two - watch how a stock trades before 7:30 (the early bird hardcore traders), at 7:30 (Fido starts trading), at 8:00 (Schwab, Scottrade and other general public brokers), at 9:15 (Fido shuts down it premarket), at 9:25, 9:28 (watch how the market makers setup) and 9:30 (when the on the open trading public get their orders executed), this will give you clues on who is trading the stock and sometimes you can take advantage of it.
The above chart is CEGE - a biotech. With all the action in DNDN, I expected some movements out of CEGE. I did not have to wait long. When I first looked this morning, CEGE was trading just before 7:00 AM up about 10%. After watching the volume grow, I thought this was ripe for a good pop up. Many times if there is good volume before 8:00 when most of the main stream Brokers allow trading, a stock will run. I started fishing around 4.80 area and got filled on 100 shares. Got myself a cup of coffee and should have started building a position of 2-5k but I did not. Why? God only knows and he did not tell me. I expected a move of 50 to 100 cents which happened right on time and I got out of my - haha - big 100 shares with a 65 cent pr0fit. I saw my target was right and the stock did nothing for the rest of the morning. CEGE then did not move up on the Open at all. The bell rang again - short the crap out of it. I did not. Why again God only knows and he's not talking. I would have/should have covered the position with the break of the trendline at about 11:20 AM. Then if one would have followed the stock for the rest of the day, it put in a perfect head and shoulders bottom giving a very pretty and simple entry point just before 1:00 PM. Did I do this ? No but this time I know why. I had to go to work. This type of action is most fustrating for me because with my knowledge this trade should have been very easy money.
This is one of my trade setups I like. A downgrade on a stock I do not think has anything wrong with it. I noticed that the 71.50 was holding good in the premarket. If I was not mentally stuck today, I would have put on a half position at 71.50 and then added if it held the open, sell a half at 72.25 and maybe holding on to the other half most of the day.
This chart of the USD/JPY which I did trade but poorly. The USD/JPY had been hitting a brick wall at about 118.40 many times during the last few weeks. The fib number of 50% was sitting at about 118.65 meaning in my mind if it could get thru 118.40, it would go to 118.65. If it could get through there, maybe 119.50 would be in the cards. The trade setup should have been buy at 117.90 looking for 118.40. Buy another at 118.40 looking for 118.65 and buy another at 118.65 looking for 119.50 with selling two of them at 119.00 and the other at 119.50 using about a 35 pip stop. I did not go this aggressive. I waited without orders for the break of 118.40 which happened in the middle of the night so I spent the rest of the day trying to get into this run. I got in at 118.75 on a breakout of the 3 hours of sideways action. I decided to get out at 118.90 because I assumed there would be a pull back first from the 119.00 area. So far I am right and looking to get in maybe back at the 118.65 area.
Bottom line of the day - a couple of trades - a lack of aggressiveness - and only $150 to show for a the work.
Monday, April 2, 2007
I did see MBT in the pre-market and thought the 105 level would be a good place to buy fear but I did not. I saw the Steels start moving early in the session but got stopped out of AKS at even and did not have the guts to chase it. Saw RS but forget to continue watching it and missed the move. Saw HOT and had a buy stop at 67.52 for an hour before I pulled it. It would have worked later.
My biggest frustration of the day was MRK. Once the chat room was working - one of the regulars pointed out MRK and I chased it to get a starting position at 44.95. I had a buy stop to double my position at 45.02 with a stop on the old position of 44.75 and a stop on what could be the new position at 44.82 and a target of 45.28 of both. Unfortunately the trade was taking longer then I expected and I needed to meet the wife for lunch. That left me with the great debate - should I leave the orders in or pull them because I could not watch. I pulled them even with the stops being there. MRK rallied to 45.00 but not 45.01. Then dropped to 44.82 before taking off in the afternoon where the trade would have worked perfectly. Anybody who wants to an opinion - should I keep my orders in or out while being away?